Analysis of Forecasting Catfish Production in Lampung Province

Abstract

Catfish (Clarias spp.) is an affordable animal protein source with potential to support nutrition programs in Lampung. This study forecasts consumption catfish production in Lampung Province using annual secondary data from 2018 to 2024 obtained from BPS Lampung Province. The analysis compared Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Single Exponential Smoothing with alpha 0.30 and 0.70 using POM-QM for Windows version 5. Forecast accuracy was evaluated with Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Squared Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The three-year Weighted Moving Average method produced the lowest error values, namely MAD 1,544.22, MSE 3,516,383.0, and MAPE 4.363 percent. The 2025 forecast reached 35,190 tons, while the 2025 to 2030 projection showed stable production around 35,141.55 to 35,190 tons. These results indicate that WMA is suitable for short-term production planning and can support efficient catfish supply management in Lampung.