Analysis Of Beef Production Forecasting Models in Lampung Province as a Basis for Nutritional Planning

Abstract

Lampung Province is one of the potential regions for the development of the livestock subsector, particularly beef production. The availability of beef plays a strategic role in supporting regional economic growth, food security, and the fulfillment of community nutritional needs as a source of animal protein. Therefore, increasing livestock production should be directed through planned, efficient, and sustainable management. Such planning is closely related to feed availability, livestock management systems, land use, livestock waste management, and the control of environmental impacts. This study aims to analyze the development pattern of beef production in Lampung Province and to determine the most appropriate forecasting model as a basis for production planning to meet nutritional needs and strengthen community food security. The data used in this study were secondary data obtained from relevant institutions and analyzed using a quantitative descriptive approach by comparing several forecasting methods, namely Linear Regression, Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing. The results show that beef production in Lampung Province fluctuated from year to year, influenced by livestock population, feed availability, farming systems, consumer demand, and local government policies. Based on model testing, Simple Linear Regression produced the best forecasting performance, with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 1.984, a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 4.840, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 10.43%. The production projection for 2029 reaches 29,284 tons. These findings indicate that forecasting models can serve as planning instruments for maintaining animal protein availability, strengthening food and nutritional security, and supporting sustainable livestock environmental management in Lampung Province.